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                                                                                         The size of the gap                                                                                             
                       

The size of the gap

                                            
                   

Critics of Peak Oil say the total remaining amount of oil is unknowable, so we don’t know when Peak will occur. This is true. But by focussing on the things that we do know, we can ask intelligent questions about those things that we don’t. By doing that, we can check if the claims that Peak Oil deniers make of the future are realistic.

                                    

 
                                       

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Factual errors
                            The following is the text of a letter I wrote today, outlining ten instances of gross factual error committed in one lecture on quantitive methods of oil industry forecasting. [1] He stated that most predictions of oil shortage have proved wrong, as evidenced by the fact that oil has manifestly not “run out”. In fact [...] Read more – ‘Factual errors’.                        
                           
The £1 trillion black hole – public sector pension liabilities « Economic Policy Centre
                            Well written piece from the Economic Policy Centre. The government has worked out that there is a £2.2 trillion shortfall between UK pension liabilities and the amount that has and will be set aside to meet them.That's not the real problem - they've used a discount rate (3.5%) that is too high. Discounting by 1% over inflation (3.0%) gives a £4 trillion shortfall, or an extra £40,000 per family in the UK.And even that's not the real problem. The "inflation" of 2% per annum is the rate it is assumed the economy will continue to gorw, based on its historical growth rate. That in turn assumes that the energy supply will grow in proportion.2% growth in the energy supply is (70/2 = ) 35 year doubling time. So by the time a 30 year old wants his pension, the global energy supply will have had to increase from 80 million barrels a day to 160 million barrels a day to fuel the economic growth to pay for it. In that 35 years, due to the nature of compound growth, we will have to produce more oil cumulatively than the total cumulative amount of oil that has ever been produced in the last 150 years.

In fact, the underlying oil rate is falling at 4 million barrels per day each year, and will have halved in 35 years time.So - no pension. Read more – ‘The £1 trillion black hole – public sector pension liabilities « Economic Policy Centre’.                        
                                                   
Why bother ?
                            Sharon Astyk, author of the useful energy crisis weblog ‘Casaubon’s Book’, asks the following question: What if your sense of impending doom places you at a distance from the rest of the world, and makes it feel empty? The difficulty here is that people do respond to your sense – even unspoken – that their [...] Read more – ‘Why bother ?’.                        
                                            

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